Margin control

How to identify margin erosion before practical completion

Margin erosion is most useful when it is still forecast information. Once every invoice has arrived, the opportunity to correct the project is mostly gone.

Watch the forecast, not only the ledger

Actual cost is backward-looking. Early margin control depends on commitments, tender returns, material quotes, variations and realistic remaining allowances being reflected before they turn into invoices.

Warning sign 1: forecast variance is concentrated in a few categories

A total project position can hide the source of deterioration. Sort cost categories by absolute variance and investigate the largest adverse movements first. A repeated $10,000 to $20,000 problem across several trades is often more dangerous than one obvious event because it can slip through routine reporting.

Warning sign 2: package coverage is incomplete

Missing or weak subcontract coverage means the current forecast still relies on assumptions. If critical categories are not tendered or awarded, management should know how much allowance remains and whether the procurement timing is becoming a risk.

Warning sign 3: pending variations are ageing

Cost can move ahead of approval. Where changed work is likely to be incurred, recognise the exposure in the cost forecast and keep the client recovery position separate until it is commercially secure.

Warning sign 4: 'savings' exist only because scope is unbought

An unused allowance is not automatically a saving. Release budget only when the required scope has been procured, removed or otherwise resolved with a defensible basis.

Warning sign 5: margin falls but reporting has no action attached

Reporting should identify what changed, why it changed and what can still be done. Possible actions include re-scoping procurement, recovering client changes, correcting package exclusions, negotiating rates, reducing discretionary cost or containing further exposure.

The purpose of a forecast is not to predict the future perfectly. It is to identify the current likely outcome early enough to change it.

A useful monthly review

  • Compare current forecast final cost with adjusted budget.
  • Compare current forecast margin with target margin and the prior saved forecast.
  • Review the largest category variances.
  • Review incomplete subcontract and material procurement.
  • Review pending and approved variations.
  • Assign corrective actions with owners and dates.